I started this blog for one reason – to buy a 3D TV.  Back in the early 90’s, I predicted the P2P revolution (as did many others) and soon after I said the music industry would be crushed by it (it was but you’ll have to read my music blog to hear the whole truth).  Later, after the “last mile” of fiber optics make it to the home you’ll see the complete convergence of internet and TV.  That of course is also happening – see the deal with BitTorrent and Comcast this last Friday.

After the convergence of internet and TV, you’ll see vast improvements in the overall compression of video data through the internet.  This will enable HD quality video to your computer (or TV soon enough).  Then, you’ll see the movie industry start to get crushed just like the music business by P2P as people will be able to download a 4GB compressed HD movie torrent delivered to your home in less than 10 minutes.  This forces the movie industry to provide value again.  They will start with 3D movies and with the advances in DVDs (Blu-ray, HD-DVD), these 3D transmissions will become commonplace.  Of course, there is a dependency on the tipping point of 3D televisions into the home (which of course depends on there being enough 3D content).  Since 3D content is currently more expensive to produce, replicate, and transmit, we’ll see a big CHICKEN AND THE EGG problem with 3D.

In the mean time, studios will keep rolling out 3D movies and IMAX is already proving that short run/pay a premium movie like Happy Feet 3D will make just as much cash as the regular movie.  Someone will release a 3D movie on DVD (as soon as there are enough 3D TVs).  Unfortunately, in the 3D industry for the home, it will be quite expensive.  It will take someone like Samsung, TI, or Sony to make that first move and set the standard.  The second-mover market will be massive and then the Satellite/Cable companies will have to adjust as well.  Unfortunately, they will be dealing with the entertainment industry’s growing reliance on internet television and the increased competition will force them into providing the bandwidth for these transmissions (or they’ll have to become an even stronger clearinghouse for television entertainment).

The adult entertainment industry historically forges the way regarding internet technology.  They have single-handedly driven the online video evolution and YouTube was the tipping point where people began to really watch Internet television.  In fact, YouTube didn’t even provide high-quality content, but rather focused on the longtail of user produced videos (see “cottage industry”).

Back to the point…I want a 3D TV.  Yes, I did call out the proliferation of 3D into the homes quite some time ago and yes, I did say that 3D would save Hollywood.  Of course, I wasn’t the only one.  The movement of 3D into the home is much like the auto industry and their calling to produce clean energy vehicles.  Hollywood and the auto industry both have to deal with the impending dangers of scarce resources and massive technology shifts.  A good comparision is comparing these similar issues:

Oil companies:  in order to shift to clean energy, they will have to retrofit gas stations across the country with new energy receptacles (gas pumps)

Hollywood: in order to shift to 3D (and save their revenue), they will have to retrofit all of their movie theatres with 3D capability.

Back to my point again – I want 3D TV and unfortunately it’s going to be awhile.  My current prediction is that I will get my first 3D TV in 2013.  That’s too long to wait!!!