3D TVs Will Not Save the TV Industry

Ok, before I show the article, let me get my rant out of the way.  First, 3D TVs are not going to save the struggling TV market.  The manufacturers are only complaining about TV sales because of the economy.  Second, Digital TV hasn’t even taken hold yet.  Until everyone switches to a digital TV, the jump to 3D is just not going to be pervasive.  Sure early adopters will check it out, and then the tipping point will occur.  But seriously, there’s no way the tipping point will happen for 3D TVs that require goggles.  So which industries will drive 3D TV sales – the usual ones, Porn and Gaming.  The major players will begin introducing 3D video….however just wait a second.  The real barrier to 3D is not the technology of the TV set like everyone believes.  Shaking the 3D glasses will not be hard and in fact many manufacturers are not even considering a ‘glasses’ solution.  The real challenge is in the content.  It’s extremely expensive to convert an old film into a 3D film.  Therefore, the video long tail won’t be there.  Can you imagine a world where the best films are buried because they’re not in 3D…it’s crazy.  So, 3D cameras will have to infiltrate the studio market, which means affordable technology.  And consumer 3D?  Who are you kidding?  3D is already going to make people dizzy and get headaches.  Can you imagine video shot by an amateur in 3D?  Makes me nauseous just thinking about it….anyways, here’s an excerpt from the article.  This is one of the better articles so far, but more or less the same content we’ve already seen.

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Three-dimensional TV is coming to a living room near you. But will the technology spur a consumer spending spree like digital and high-definition TV did before it? Or will 3D end up being the next big flop?

One thing is clear, TV manufacturers need something new to get people buying TVs. Over the last couple of years, TV manufacturers have experienced a sales boom as consumers upgrade to digital TVs in anticipation of the government’s mandated switch to digital TV broadcasts in February 2009. Eager shoppers have also been upgrading to high-definition TVs as movie studios, cable and satellite operators, and TV broadcasters have begun offering more programming in HD.

But as the economy worsens, the forecast for the TV market is looking grim. The LCD TV market is only expected to grow about 17 percent in terms of units shipped in 2009, according to research firm DisplaySearch. This is down from growth of about 29 percent in 2008. Plasma TV growth is also expected to suffer with the market only expected to grow by about 5 percent in 2009 compared with a 24 percent rise in 2008, DisplaySearch said.

As a result, TV makers are looking for the next hot thing to attract new consumers. And some are hoping 3D TVs could be it.”

See the rest at CNET