Entries from March 2008 ↓

How come they picked Beowulf as the big 3D release? Why wouldn’t they have gone with an old classic like Star Wars or King Kong? I’ll tell you why, because it doesn’t matter. That’s right, they made their money too. It’s too bad that everyone I know who saw it in 3D said “ehhh, the 3D was cool, but the movie wasn’t very good”.

Is there any doubt at all…

3D TV is the New Gold Rush?

Get with the program Hollywood. Make something good into 3D and you’ll get your turning point. You won’t be able to keep people away from the theatres. Okay, so the gold rush hasn’t started yet. And we know that the re-re-re-release of Star Wars in 3D will be massive. Who will win the 3D box office? Star Wars or Lord of the Rings? Shoot, it’d even be fun to see Rambo in 3D. Who wouldn’t watch all of their favorite movies all over again in 3D at the theatre? Jaws would sell out again!

So this 3D TV thing is not new. IBM was working with DLP technology back in 2005.  At the time, the IBM DLP 3D TV was the first of its kind.

Check it out – they had it then…it’s 2008, “I want my 3DTV”!!!!!

http://www.physorg.com/news8113.html

I started this blog for one reason – to buy a 3D TV.  Back in the early 90’s, I predicted the P2P revolution (as did many others) and soon after I said the music industry would be crushed by it (it was but you’ll have to read my music blog to hear the whole truth).  Later, after the “last mile” of fiber optics make it to the home you’ll see the complete convergence of internet and TV.  That of course is also happening – see the deal with BitTorrent and Comcast this last Friday.

After the convergence of internet and TV, you’ll see vast improvements in the overall compression of video data through the internet.  This will enable HD quality video to your computer (or TV soon enough).  Then, you’ll see the movie industry start to get crushed just like the music business by P2P as people will be able to download a 4GB compressed HD movie torrent delivered to your home in less than 10 minutes.  This forces the movie industry to provide value again.  They will start with 3D movies and with the advances in DVDs (Blu-ray, HD-DVD), these 3D transmissions will become commonplace.  Of course, there is a dependency on the tipping point of 3D televisions into the home (which of course depends on there being enough 3D content).  Since 3D content is currently more expensive to produce, replicate, and transmit, we’ll see a big CHICKEN AND THE EGG problem with 3D.

In the mean time, studios will keep rolling out 3D movies and IMAX is already proving that short run/pay a premium movie like Happy Feet 3D will make just as much cash as the regular movie.  Someone will release a 3D movie on DVD (as soon as there are enough 3D TVs).  Unfortunately, in the 3D industry for the home, it will be quite expensive.  It will take someone like Samsung, TI, or Sony to make that first move and set the standard.  The second-mover market will be massive and then the Satellite/Cable companies will have to adjust as well.  Unfortunately, they will be dealing with the entertainment industry’s growing reliance on internet television and the increased competition will force them into providing the bandwidth for these transmissions (or they’ll have to become an even stronger clearinghouse for television entertainment).

The adult entertainment industry historically forges the way regarding internet technology.  They have single-handedly driven the online video evolution and YouTube was the tipping point where people began to really watch Internet television.  In fact, YouTube didn’t even provide high-quality content, but rather focused on the longtail of user produced videos (see “cottage industry”).

Back to the point…I want a 3D TV.  Yes, I did call out the proliferation of 3D into the homes quite some time ago and yes, I did say that 3D would save Hollywood.  Of course, I wasn’t the only one.  The movement of 3D into the home is much like the auto industry and their calling to produce clean energy vehicles.  Hollywood and the auto industry both have to deal with the impending dangers of scarce resources and massive technology shifts.  A good comparision is comparing these similar issues:

Oil companies:  in order to shift to clean energy, they will have to retrofit gas stations across the country with new energy receptacles (gas pumps)

Hollywood: in order to shift to 3D (and save their revenue), they will have to retrofit all of their movie theatres with 3D capability.

Back to my point again – I want 3D TV and unfortunately it’s going to be awhile.  My current prediction is that I will get my first 3D TV in 2013.  That’s too long to wait!!!

I can’t wait for the day when someone says to me “I got one of those new 3D TVs”. What’s crazy is that they “supposedly already exist”. In fact, I’ve seen about 10 different companies claiming that they’ve already manufactured a 3D TV. I’ve talked with a few businesses that also have full 3D holographic displays like you’d see in Star Wars. However, it seems perfectly possible that you’d see one of these TVs at a trade show, but until they have at least one 3D TV Channel, you won’t be seeing these TVs at Best Buy.

Check out this quote from the Texas Instruments DLP 3D TV site:

Turn on your new 3-D DLP® HDTV, slide on your active 3-D glasses, and watch the images jump off the high definition screen and into your home theatre. The extreme speed of the DLP® chip, combined with 3-D technology, makes it all possible.

–

Again, I can’t stress enough how the glasses are going to HAVE TO GO AWAY for these TVs to proliferate into the home. However, those who have a home theatre setup with the full surround sound may dig into the early “3D glasses” model.

Anyways, DLP is a fantastic technology and will probably be at the forefront of this consumer 3D technology. We’ll keep an eye on it. At least their website is dope and gives us hope it will arrive sooner than later – check it out:

http://www.dlp.com/hdtv/3-d_dlp_hdtv.aspx